Market Minute

What To Do…

September 4th, 2018

Over the past three and a half years, we have witnessed some of the most aggressive market conditions, which many of us in the real estate business have ever experienced. Are there now signs that the market is at last, taking a breather? Or to put it another way, “If I have waited this long to get into the market, should I wait a little longer?”

There may be no simple answer to this question, but this is what we are seeing…

– There are two markets at play; below half a million dollars, and above half a million dollars. The market below half a million dollars remains much more aggressive.

– While we still see properties sell above the list price, there is some buyer push back. This is especially true on acreage properties ($723,240 – Average price in Comox Valley), but we are seeing this in other sectors, as well.  So, if you were waiting for a price reduction it may be interesting to note that in the Comox Valley, there were 74 price reductions in the last month. In Campbell River, there were 36 price reductions.

– The Vancouver market has slowed for a number of reasons, so it may take a few months for the change to manifest itself on the Vancouver Island markets.

– If there is a correction, it is our view that the Comox Valley and Campbell River should experience a soft landing.

Divide And Conquer

August 2nd, 2018

The sales to list ratio is the final sale price of a home to its list or asking price. The ratio is an indication of whether a home is selling above, at or below list price.

A home with a sale to list ratio greater than 100 percent means that the buyer paid more than the list price, while a sale to list ratio less than 100 percent means that the home sold for less than list price.

This ratio is a very useful metric not only for home sales but any situation where value is determined by negotiation between a buyer and seller. How far the ratio deviates from 100 percent and the direction of deviation provides insight into the motivation of the buyer and seller. As to the real estate market it is generally agreed that a ratio of 40 percent of less is a ‘Buyer’s Market’, 40 to 60 percent is a balanced market and over 60 percent is a ‘Seller’s Market’.

Over the past 12 months in the Comox Valley we saw a 78 percent sales to list ratio and in Campbell River the ratio for the same period was 87 percent, indicating that both the Comox Valley and Campbell River are still in a strong ‘Seller’s Market’.


The Cavalry Is On Its Way!

July 3rd, 2018

For some time we have highlighted the over heated demand and the restricted supply, which have created the most aggressive real estate market conditions which many of us have ever experienced. Recently, in the rural area south of Courtenay, signs for ‘Union Bay Estates’ have appeared. On the supply side at least, help is on the way as some 2900+ residential units are proposed. This comprehensive phased development of 346 hectares will also include commercial, recreational and institutional (school and fire hall sites) components.

The statistics this month for the Comox Valley suggest that the market may be changing. The sell/list ratio has fallen and the days to sell has increased. Campbell River still offers better affordability as compared to the Comox Valley. The average single family house price is 16.5% ($85,922) cheaper in Campbell River. The prospect of many new homes being started by this time next year in Union Bay is great news for the Comox Valley.

One Percent Per Month

June 1st, 2018

In the Comox Valley, the 12 month to date stats point to an increase of 17% over the same period last year. This is very close to the 16% increase in the Campbell River market. In Comox, this increase is based on 893 sales, while in Campbell River there were 598 sales. It is interesting that the statistical data is often borne out as we track repeat sales which confirm a percentage increase of 1% to 1.5% per month. This information applies to the single family market. Naturally there are variations within the market sectors, but it should be noted that in some cases, the percentage increases are even higher.

Earlier this week I completed an appraisal on a new house which featured LP SmartSide Engineered Wood Siding and Trim. Initially, I thought it was Hardi Plank siding. This new product appears to have some advantages over the cement siding. I would be grateful to receive any comments from persons who are familiar with the SmartSide products. –

Aggressive Market Persists

May 1st, 2018

As we pointed out last month, prices continue to rise, and the dollar volume of sales increase, but the actual number of units sold is down. These trends from Campbell River and the Comox Valley are evident in some larger centres as well. Government tinkering through more and more legislation may help, but our preference is to free up the regulatory process and get more land onto the market.

One impact of increased regulation is that investors are avoiding the highly regulated areas, and instead starting to come directly to the Comox Valley and Campbell River. Partly as a result, we find that the market is still quite aggressive, with strong demand (competing interest) on the limited offerings.



A quiet word….about pornography.

Porn has ruined more lives, relationships and marriages than many of us care to think about or acknowledge. I have come to learn that pornography is not a ‘victimless crime’. There is, in fact, a direct link between porn and sex trafficking; modern day slavery.

At the end of this month, my wife Diana and I will attend an anti-porn conference in Ottawa called Strong & Free. The event is being organised by Josh Gilman and his Ministry called Strength to Fight. Three years ago, Josh walked away from a job in Parliament with a good salary, paid holidays and benefits to tackle the scourge of pornography.

When I go to Ottawa, I want to take some west coast money to show this man than he is not alone and that we support him. To date, I have collected $230. If you would like to contribute, and help me raise $1,000 or more, please call me to make arrangements. Tax receipts are available. Chris cel: 250-650-3320.



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